I am not here to debate the merits/issues of Short Printed cards, not tonight anyway.
But I would like to discuss the number of Star players that are among the Short Printed Cards
2016 Topps Heritage #479 Lorenzo Cain
It has been mentioned that there are a disproportionately large number of stars among 2016T Heritage cards which run from #426-500 and can only be found at a rate of 1:3 packs.
If your favorite player is Mike Trout and he is in the SP range, you may be upset at how hard his card is to find. That doesn’t necessarily mean that more stars are short printed.
While there are many Stars in the high range there are plenty in the base set, Andrew McCutchen, Adam Jones, Jose Bautista and Kris Bryant among them.
How do we go about figuring out if the Stars are backloaded into the Short Print Range?
What is a Star?
For purposes of our study we picked the 2015 All-Star teams.
I admit the way the All-Star team is composed is a complicated process subject to the whims of a popularity contest. Regardless, every player that makes the squad is a star at some level, even if it is because of strong public persona or due to the mandatory rep for each team clause.
The 2015 All-Star teams gave us a sample of 76 players that were chosen for the two squads. Of those players 74 were issued 2016 Topps Heritage cards. The retired AJ Burnett was skipped which makes sense, but I have no idea why Alex Gordon was omitted (perhaps it was an allusion to the 2006 Topps debacle)
How many Star Players should be Short Printed?
12
Why Twelve? You may want to check my math on this one - here goes: there are 75 SP cards 2016 Heritage. This makes up 15% of the 500 card set (75/500 = 0.15)
There are 74 All-Stars in Heritage and 15% of 74 = 11.1
To give Topps some extra room we rounded up.
How many Stars are SP in 2016T Heritage?
31
THIRTY-ONE!?!!
That is just a shy of 42% close to Three-Times the expected number. Among the first 425 cards 43 are Stars just a tad more often than 1 in 10. The final 75 cards include 31 Stars, that is more than 1 in 3.
The Numbers
The Chart below lists all of the 2015 All-Stars in Topps Heritage Numerical Order. The red notes the High Numbers that start at card 426 - Clayton Kershaw.
-->But I would like to discuss the number of Star players that are among the Short Printed Cards
It has been mentioned that there are a disproportionately large number of stars among 2016T Heritage cards which run from #426-500 and can only be found at a rate of 1:3 packs.
If your favorite player is Mike Trout and he is in the SP range, you may be upset at how hard his card is to find. That doesn’t necessarily mean that more stars are short printed.
While there are many Stars in the high range there are plenty in the base set, Andrew McCutchen, Adam Jones, Jose Bautista and Kris Bryant among them.
How do we go about figuring out if the Stars are backloaded into the Short Print Range?
What is a Star?
For purposes of our study we picked the 2015 All-Star teams.
I admit the way the All-Star team is composed is a complicated process subject to the whims of a popularity contest. Regardless, every player that makes the squad is a star at some level, even if it is because of strong public persona or due to the mandatory rep for each team clause.
The 2015 All-Star teams gave us a sample of 76 players that were chosen for the two squads. Of those players 74 were issued 2016 Topps Heritage cards. The retired AJ Burnett was skipped which makes sense, but I have no idea why Alex Gordon was omitted (perhaps it was an allusion to the 2006 Topps debacle)
How many Star Players should be Short Printed?
12
Why Twelve? You may want to check my math on this one - here goes: there are 75 SP cards 2016 Heritage. This makes up 15% of the 500 card set (75/500 = 0.15)
There are 74 All-Stars in Heritage and 15% of 74 = 11.1
To give Topps some extra room we rounded up.
How many Stars are SP in 2016T Heritage?
31
THIRTY-ONE!?!!
That is just a shy of 42% close to Three-Times the expected number. Among the first 425 cards 43 are Stars just a tad more often than 1 in 10. The final 75 cards include 31 Stars, that is more than 1 in 3.
The Numbers
The Chart below lists all of the 2015 All-Stars in Topps Heritage Numerical Order. The red notes the High Numbers that start at card 426 - Clayton Kershaw.
| 2016 Heritage | 2015 All Star | Team |
| 7 | Alcides Escobar (1) | Kansas City Royals |
| 11 | Francisco Rodriguez (6) | Milwaukee Brewers |
| 14 | Jhonny Peralta (3) | St. Louis Cardinals |
| 30 | J.D. Martinez (1) | Detroit Tigers |
| 36 | Carlos Martinez (1) | St. Louis Cardinals |
| 38 | Adrian Gonzalez (1) | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| 70 | Kris Bryant (1) | Chicago Cubs |
| 73 | Jonathan Papelbon (6) | Philadelphia Phillies |
| 74 | Brock Holt (1) | Boston Red Sox |
| 79 | Jose Iglesias (1) | Detroit Tigers |
| 80 | Aroldis Chapman (4) | Cincinnati Reds |
| 84 | Yasmani Grandal (1) | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| 89 | Trevor Rosenthal (1) | St. Louis Cardinals |
| 90 | Sonny Gray (1) | Oakland Athletics |
| 100 | Adam Jones (5) | Baltimore Orioles |
| 125 | Zach Britton (1) | Kansas City Royals |
| 128 | Mike Moustakas (1) | Kansas City Royals |
| 130 | Zack Greinke (3) | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| 131 | Russell Martin (4) | Toronto Blue Jays |
| 146 | Kelvin Herrera (1) | Kansas City Royals |
| 156 | Mark Melancon (2) | Pittsburgh Pirates |
| 157 | Manny Machado (1) | Baltimore Orioles |
| 160 | Joc Pederson (1) | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| 195 | Nolan Arenado (1) | Colorado Rockies |
| 210 | Michael Wacha (1) | St. Louis Cardinals |
| 247 | Hector Santiago (1) | Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim |
| 251 | Yadier Molina (7) | St. Louis Cardinals |
| 254 | Dee Gordon (2) | Miami Marlins |
| 293 | Wade Davis (1) | Kansas City Royals |
| 297 | Joe Panik (1) | San Francisco Giants |
| 300 | Glen Perkins (3) | Minnesota Twins |
| 302 | Salvador Perez (3) | Kansas City Royals |
| 310 | Chris Sale (4) | Chicago White Sox |
| 320 | Madison Bumgarner (3) | San Francisco Giants |
| 322 | Giancarlo Stanton (3) | Miami Marlins |
| 325 | Matt Holliday (7) | St. Louis Cardinals |
| 331 | Brad Boxberger (1) | Tampa Bay Rays |
| 339 | Darren O'Day (1) | Baltimore Orioles |
| 340 | Mark Teixeira (3) | New York Yankees |
| 382 | Brett Gardner (1) | New York Yankees |
| 400 | Andrew McCutchen (5) | Pittsburgh Pirates |
| 419 | DJ LeMahieu (1) | Colorado Rockies |
| 425 | Gerrit Cole (1) | Pittsburgh Pirates |
| 426 | Clayton Kershaw (5) | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| 427 | Brian Dozier (1) | Minnesota Twins |
| 430 | Dallas Keuchel (1) | Houston Astros |
| 431 | Jose Bautista (6) | Toronto Blue Jays |
| 433 | Prince Fielder (6) | Texas Rangers |
| 435 | Chris Archer (1) | Tampa Bay Rays |
| 444 | Anthony Rizzo (2) | Chicago Cubs |
| 445 | Justin Upton (3) | San Diego Padres |
| 446 | Troy Tulowitzki (5) | Colorado Rockies |
| 447 | Brandon Crawford (1) | San Francisco Giants |
| 450 | Bryce Harper (3) | Washington Nationals |
| 451 | Stephen Vogt (1) | Oakland Athletics |
| 457 | Nelson Cruz (4) | Seattle Mariners |
| 458 | Jason Kipnis (2) | Cleveland Indians |
| 459 | Max Scherzer (3) | Washington Nationals |
| 460 | Buster Posey (3) | San Francisco Giants |
| 461 | Felix Hernandez (6) | Seattle Mariners |
| 462 | Dellin Betances (2) | New York Yankees |
| 464 | Shelby Miller (1) | Atlanta Braves |
| 465 | Paul Goldschmidt (3) | Arizona Diamondbacks |
| 466 | A.J. Pollock (1) | Arizona Diamondbacks |
| 470 | Jose Altuve (3) | Houston Astros |
| 472 | Todd Frazier (2) | Cincinnati Reds |
| 477 | David Price (5) | Detroit Tigers |
| 478 | Miguel Cabrera (10) | Detroit Tigers |
| 479 | Lorenzo Cain (1) | Kansas City Royals |
| 481 | Albert Pujols (10) | Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim |
| 483 | Josh Donaldson (2) | Toronto Blue Jays |
| 495 | Jacob deGrom (1) | New York Mets |
| 496 | Ryan Braun (6) | Milwaukee Brewers |
| 500 | Mike Trout (4) | Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim |
| na | Alex Gordon (3) | Kansas City Royals |
| na | A.J. Burnett (1) | Pittsburgh Pirates |
Exploring these numbers a bit further uncovers greater violations.
The parenthetical numbers associated with the player names indicate the number of times the player has been an All-Star. The total number of games for Hi-Numbers 104 versus 98 for Base. Yes among last years All-Stars the 31 players that fall among the 75 short prints account for more All-Star appearances than the 43 that fall in the first 425 cards.
Sources and Links
2016 Heritage/1967 Topps Index
Baseball Almanac
Sports Collectors Daily
That is why I don't collect the set. Evan Longoria has been a short print for 3 years now.
ReplyDeleteYup. When Topps started backloading the set with SP stars a few years ago, it was really annoying. Now I think it was just desperation on their part. Apparently they weren't selling enough and wanted to see how many would be foolish enough to spend even more money trying to find the stars.
ReplyDeleteI guess there are plenty of us fools because Topps hasn't switched back yet.