2016 HoF Candidates: Billy Wagner

Today we turn to the most prominent Phillies player added to the HoF Ballot, Billy Wagner

2005 Topps Opening Day #117 Billy Wagner

Wagner was in Philadelphia for only 2 seasons, but it seemed like longer.

During a 16 year career for five different teams Billy the Kid collected 422 career saves which ranks 5th all time. 59 of those saves were with the Phillies which was the only team for which Wagner didn't make the postseason.

Phungo HoF Verdict - Veto
Billy Wagner is not a Hall of Famer. Closers are paid to save games, and while Wagner ranks 5th all-time in that category I just don't value the category nor the position.

2005 Topps Opening Day
Topps OD is pretty much a rehash of flagship. 2005 is no exception, however it is one of the better replications, the Blue Foil for the player name is an upgrade over the silver/gold that is present on the originals - gives the cards some added color.

2005 Topps Opening Day #117 Billy Wagner
2005 Topps Billy Wagner

Here we have OD and flagship - the one obvious visual downside of the latter set is the garish Opening Day flare.

Flip

2005 Topps Opening Day #117 Billy Wagner (b-side)

The backsides are the same for OD. I do like the quote from Jimy Williams as he notes Billy Wagner as a standup guy. Of course Wagner wasn't afraid to mention that his teammates weren't living up to expectations and Jimy Williams would eventually join the Phillies as Bench coach and then leave after the team won a World Championship.

Sources and Links
2016 HoF Candidates
Baseball-ref
baseball cardpedia


 

2016 HoF Ballot: Alan Trammell & aWARds 1987 MVP

In a couple of days the Baseball Hall of Fame will announce the members of the 2016 class. One of the most debated of the candidates is Detroit Tigers Alum Alan Trammell.

1980 Topps Alan Trammell

It is my opinion that Trammell's performance during the final week of the 1987 regular season should have put him in the Hall.

Well in reality his overall career accomplishments should be good enough but more on that later now back to 1987.

The 1987 AL MVP award went to Toronto Blue Jays Left Fielder George Bell. Here I present an argument that today with the emphasis on advanced metrics (notably WAR) the Award would go to Alan Trammell.  

The difference between Bell and Trammell in 1987 was 12 points, which is less than a single first place ballot (14 pts are awarded for a 1st). Both players had very good years. Bell's standout numbers were his league leading 134 RBIs and 369 Total Bases. His 47 Homers were second only to Rookie of the Year Mark McGwire, whom we covered for 2016 HoF Candidates recently. Trammel batted .343 (3rd AL), with a .402 OBP (5th) .953 OPS (6th) and 329 TBs (4th). All good numbers and when coupled with the demand of playing a middle infield position I submit that they are comparable to Bell's.

Voters didn't have the advantage of consulting WAR numbers in 1987, but we do now. The results are not even close. Trammell wins easily 8.2 - 5.0. Baseball-ref has stated that a differences of 1 or 2 wins is not "definitive" - the +3.2 advantage of Trammell beyond this +2.0 margin.

My third argument for Trammel's 1987 MVP award is The Tigers won the AL East while George Bell's Blue Jays finished 2nd. Furthermore Alan Trammell was critical to Detroit overtaking Toronto during the final week of the Season. Following play on September 26th the Blue Jays held a +3.5 Game lead on the Tigers. Detroit had 8 games to play, Toronto 7.

For the balance of the season the Tigers went 6-2 while the Blue Jays failed to win a game.

During the stretch Alan Trammell batted .313/.405/.500 with a Homer, 3 RBI and 4 Runs Scored while George Bell went .111/.250/.111 with no XBH and 1 RBI.

There it is - nearly comparable traditional numbers, WAR numbers that favor Trammell as well as a convincing edge in team accomplishment.

It should be noted that Alan Trammell finished 3rd in AL WAR in 1987. The two players who finished above him were Roger Clemens (+9.4) and Wade Boggs (+8.3) both of the Boston Red Sox  who finished 20 games back of the Tigers. Trammell did pace Boggs in oWAR +8.2 to +7.6

Phungo HoF Verdict - HOF
The missed MVP award may not even matter if one guides their HoF vote via WAR. For his career Alan Trammell had a +70.4 WAR this ranks 11th all time among Shortstops, just below Derek Jeter (+71.8) There are 21 HoF Shortstops with an average WAR of 66.7. Trammell has a +62.4 oWAR ranking 81st among ALL position players. Notables that rank below Trammell include Ernie Banks (+61.8), Eddie Murray (+61.2), and Ryne Sandberg (+59.5).

In additon Alan Trammell checked the Box on a World Championship in 1984 when he was named as the Series MVP.

If he had the Regular Season MVP on his shelf I believe that his Hall of Fame candidacy would not even be in doubt. It is a shame that we didn't have advanced metrics in WAR in 1987, but the BBWAA has the opportunity to right that wrong this week.

Sources and Links
Alan Trammell HOF Index
2016 HoF Candidates
Baseball Hall of Fame
Baseball-ref

2016 HoF Ballot: Chan Ho Park - 1994 Score Select #177

With Korean First Baseman Byung Ho Park signing with Twins I thought it was a good opportunity to discuss Chan Ho Park in our HoF Ballot Series.

1994 Score Select #177 Rookie Prospect Chan Ho Park

Unfortunately the BBWAA committee that is responsible for creating the Ballot did not see the need for that discussion. Park fulfilled the 10 year experience quota but was left of this years ballot - Jay Jaffe noted in an SI Article that for a number of reasons Park was the biggest snub on this years ballot.  Chan Ho Park was the first Korean Player to make it in the states, as more of his countrymen Join MLB teams the significance of his career will grow.

Phungo Verditct

HOF

Ok - I'm Asian and I feel for the Snubbed guy. To be honest Chan Ho Park's year with the Phillies was pretty mediocre as was his career.

Great thing about writing a blog is I can Put Chan Ho Park in the HoF and blow off Mark McGwire.

Source and Links
2016 Phungo HoF Ballot 
Baseball-ref
CNNSI - Jay Jaffe
Minnesota Twins

2016 HoF Ballot: Mark McGwire - 1987 Leaf #40 with special guest Jose Canseco

Mark McGwire appears on the Hall of Fame ballot for his 10th and Final Time this year. Due to some recent changes to the voting process McGwire will not get the opportunity to hang around for five more election cycles.

For me it doesn't matter, Cardwise the first thing I think when I hear Mark McGwire's name looks like this...

1987 Leaf #40 McGwire and Canseco

or This

1988 Fleer Superstar Special Oakland's Power Team

or This

1988 Topps #797 Athletics Leaders

And I am sure there are more - given the era I assume there are lots more. Kind of curious that in all three cards the two players appear in the same order. I thought the latter two shots may have been at the same session but Jose Canseco is wearing different arm bands in each photo.

Mark McGwire HOF Verdict:

Well if you haven't guessed from tthose three cards here it is: 

 VETO
 
Unlike many fans the marriage of Steroids/PEDs and Baseball have made my life less difficult rather than more complicated. First off I don't get excited over HoF results, I think they are fun to follow and generate interesting conversations. Secondly it allows me to be arbitrary for no real good reason as to whom I put into the Phungo Hall.

And you know what - I dislike Mark McGwire. Having steroids out there lingering is a nice bonus to justify a NO Vote on my HoF ballot.

Beyond that I think of McGwire as a marginal HoF candidate. He is probably just over the line stat-wise.

Despite his 583 Home Runs among the 19 HOF first baseman McGwire ranks just a tick below the groups average in WAR scores for all three JAWS categories (WAR, WAR7 and JAWS).

Primarily known as an offensive threat at a power position McGwire never won an MVP award. He did finish 2nd to fellow PED suspect Sammy Sosa in 1998 despite having a higher WAR than the Cubs outfielder - Both Sosa and McGwire ranked behind Barry Bonds in 1998 WAR, However McGwire led the league in oWAR.

McGwire did check the Rookie of the Year box and won a pennant with the 1989 A's and was an all-star a dozen times.

Flip
We take a look at the reverse of each of the cards
 

1987 Leaf #40 McGwire and Canseco (b-side)

The text discusses the Rookie of the Year torch passing from Canseco to McGwire. Nice to see Sal Bando get a mention with all the thunder including Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson. 

1988 Fleer Superstar Special Oakland's Power Team (b-side)

Fleer mention of McGwire's incredible 49 Home Run rookie campaign gives them a nice opportunity to give a nod to Hall of Famer Frank Robinson.

1988 Topps #797 Athletics Leaders (b-side)

As a stat nerd I find the topps Team Leader card the most interesting. Some great names there beyond McGwire and Canseco. The Hall of Famer appearing here is Dennis Eckersley. Fellow pitcher Dave Stewart is just starting his great stretch as the A's ace. Stewarts 261+ innings ranked 8th in the majors in 1987, That would have led all of MLB every season since 2003 (Roy Halladay 266). The NL has not seen a pitcher eclipse that mark this century - Randy Johnson 271.2 in 1999.

Sources and Links
2016 Phungo HoF Ballot
Baseball Hall of Fame
Baseball-ref

2016 Hall of Fame Candidates Index

This is an index of players who will likely be on the 2016 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot.

First Time Candidates

Ken Griffey Ken Griffey pt 2

Jim Edmonds

Jason Kendall

Troy Glaus

Mike Hampton

Luis Castillo

Randy Winn

Garret Anderson

Mike Lowell

Billy Wagner Veto

Trevor Hoffman

Mark Grudzielanek

Mike Sweeney

Chan Ho Park HOF

David Eckstein

Jeff Weaver

Brad Ausmus

Russ Ortiz

Gary Matthews

Cristian Guzman

Jose Guillen

Bob Howry

Bengie Molina

Fernando Tatis

Russ Springer

Returning to the Ballot

Mike Piazza

Jeff Bagwell

Tim Raines

Curt Schilling

Roger Clemens

Barry Bonds

Lee Smith

Edgar Martinez

Alan Trammell HOF (final Ballot)

Mike Mussina

Jeff Kent

Fred McGriff

Larry Walker

Gary Sheffield

Mark McGwire (final Ballot - VETO)

Sammy Sosa

Nomar Garciaparra

Source and Links
2015 HoF Candidates

Baseball-ref