How expensive is 2014 Topps?

Tonight we take a look our second look at the price of Baseball Cards, specifically Topps Cards.  We will take a look at the price of 2014 Topps versus some different Topps sets that have been produced over the lasr 40+ years.

2014 Topps #4 Cody Asche

Key
Column B is the Price of a Pack in the referenced year.
Column C is the number of cards in that pack.
Column D is what a 12 card pack would cost (Everything is relative to 2012 Topps Cards)
In Column E I produce the cost for a 660 card set build from 12 card packs under perfect collation.  I used 660 cards as a constant because it was the basic set size in 2012.

Column F in red is the Inflation factor. This is the Key to the chart.  2012=$1. That dollar is worth 97 cents today, but in 1972 a single dollar  had the buying power equivalent to $5.49 in 2012 dollars. 

Column H is the price of a 12 card pack with the inflation adjustument (product of columns D*F)
Column I is similar to H but for the 660 card set.

Observations
-To build a 660 card 2014 base set via Topps $1.99 12 card retail packs would cost 106.17.
-While building a 660 card set would cost one about 3 times as much as it did in 1972, the price of building a set really hasn't changed since 1995.
-I understand there are inserts and possible collation issues. I say trade people trade your inserts for base cards.
-The cost of 660 cards is slightly cheaper each of the last 2 years because Topps has maintained the  pack size and price point while inflation has been slight.
-Cards are cheaper then a decade ago by over 30%!
-This is because Topps went from a 10 card pack to 12 card packs AND reduced the price
-Despite Topps obtaining a monopoly on the MLB license  prices have dropped 16% since 2008. This is a difference of over $20 when building a 660 card set.


Sources & Links
2013 Topps Cost Analysis
Pack Prices 1997- present Baseballcardpedia
Pack Prices 1979-1995 - ebay (shown on retail boxes)
Pack Price 1972 my memory - Could be wrong on this one.

Bureau of Labor Inflation Calculator (For this article the inflation rates were captured on 2014 10 08 The data is approximately 6 weeks behind, the rates here would reflect data through end of August 2014 for a more in depth description click here)

2014 Phungo #25 Cody Asche

Another crazy week here at Phungo HQ. The Phillies are in the middle of a home and home series with the Blue Jays, unfortunately the two games in Philadelphia haven't got their way. 

2014 Phungo #25 Cody Asche

We have had a non-Phils card posted all week, today we are going to try and change the team's luck by posting a Phungo Card.

Last night Cody Asche popped a Grand Slam in the bottom of the sixth. Unofortunately it was not enough offense for a team that featured some sloppy play through the early innings. The Blue Jays manufactured a run in the 10th to take the contest 6-5.

Phillies 2014+ Cody Asche 2013 Topps #US71 (RC)

The Phillies drafted Cody Asche in the fourth round of the Draft in June 2011, less than 3 years later he is penciled in as the teams opening day third baseman. A year ago the Phillies picked up Michael Young to fill the 3B role, Ideally the Phils would have made the postseason, Young would be back for a transition year and Asche wouldn’t be coming up until the end of this season rather than last. 

2013 Topps #US71 Cody Asche (RC)

Of course, things didn’t go that way and we got our first look at Cody. His debut was fair at best – The .235 batting average in 162 ABs is simply not good enough for a Major League corner infielder. The other problematic number was Asche’s 43 strikeouts which projects out to 140+ in a full 600 PA season. Asche showed decent power with 5 homers and 14 XBH. His defense is seen as average, advanced defensive metrics in a limited MLB sample back that up with a slightly below average dWAR.

Currently Cody Asche’s biggest issue is hitting LHP. All 5 of his Homers were vs righty’s, at lower levels only 3 of 15 HR were versus southpaws. Furthermore his 2013 slash line vs LHP across both majors and AAA was .252/.299/.361 in 147 ABs.

2014+
In 2005 at age 26 Chase Utley played his first full season, He batted .291 with 28 Homers and 105 RBIs. However, in 128 ABs versus lefties he batted .219 with only 7 of those homers. His vs LHP slash line for the season was .219/.348/.469. A key difference between Utley's 2005 and Asche 2013 vs LHP is that Utley worked walks. Utley had 28 hits vs LHP, but he also had 25 walks - this accounted for an OBP that was 129 points higher then his BA. Asking Cody Asche to become Chase Utley would be way to large of a request - but I believe for Cody to be an everyday player it is necessary for him to be more selective at teh plate, especially vs Lefties. 

Phungo Sez
Honestly, I don't think that Asche his ready to play everyday for a playoff caliber team. I also don't think that the 2014 Phillies fall into that premium category. If he stays in the majors all of 2014 I see Asche at .281 average .331 OBP, 20 HR, 67 RBI with a WAR of 1.8 (2.1 oWAR)

Phillies 2014+ Index
Cody Asche WAR + 1.8
Cole Hamels WAR +3.8
Ryan Howard WAR +1.0

Sources
Baseball-ref

Swag from Cards on Cards

Got home form a typical lousy Monday to have my mood quickly changed by a very nice card package from Kerry of Cards on Cards. Here are some of the highlights

2006 Bowman Heritage Pieces of Greatness #PG-RH Ryan Howard

The picture of Ryan Howard is a little odd as Topps is trying to capture the style of the classic 1949 Bowman here. Cool card with a nice striped Jersey snippet.

2013 Topps Heritage Chrome #HC98 Darin Ruf/Tyler Cloyd (refractor/purple)
2013 Topps #83 Darin Ruf Green Parallel

Couple of nice Darin Ruf parallels. Ruf is a bit of a fan favorite but the Phillies latest moves regarding several bench players seem to indicate that Darin isn't in their plans for 2014.

2012 Topps #243 Justin DeFratus (blue parallel)
2013 Topps #US71 Cody Asche

Two more Phillies RCs for the collection. Kerry must be busy out there getting new product, the Asche card is part of the Update Series - feels like it just came out.

ConC sent over two team bags of cards, here are some of the rest

September Calls: 2011 Bowman Draft Propects #BDPP2 Cody Asche

One of the byproducts of the Phillies miserable season is an incredible array of new faces. Hopefully some of these folks will stick around and be part of the Phillies future.  Cody Asche may be one of the candidates for Phils 2014.  

2011 Bowman Draft Propects #BDPP2 Cody Asche

Cody Asche has gotten himself into 30+ games in his first campaign as a major leaguer. The third baseman has looked good in the field and provided some pop at the plate. Asche hit his 5th homer of the season earlier tonight - He had 15 at AAA Lehigh Valley prior to getting called up.

The Phillies have struggled to find a solution for the hot corner.  During the recent stretch of  winning seasons they have settled on mediocre players at a position that is traditionally considered a premium offensive spot.  Both Pedro Feliz and Placido Polanco were adequate, but it would be nice to get some production from a homegrown talent.  

2011 Bowman
We recently featured a 2011 Bowman Chrome of Cesar Hernandez.  For more info on that set click here. The 2011 Bowman Design looks pretty decent on both base and Chrome. I like the way the keep the photo in black/white beyond the border of the color photo.  It helps the player photo pop a bit.

Other Voices
The Phillies Room featured the Bowman Card whenever Asche was first called up a month ago.


Sources
The Phillies Room
baseball-ref.com