Thursday, November 20, 2014

WAR Stories: Phillies 2015+ Cole Hamels 2014 Topps Stadium Club #165

Last week we found out that a Pitcher won the NL MVP Award. Clayton Kershaw was the NL Leader in WAR and no position player stood out enough to sway the majority of voters to pick them over Kershaw.

A little bit lost in the voting was that the player who ranked 2nd in NL WAR among ALL players garnered ZERO MVP votes. Each of the 30 voters selected 10 player on their ballots and not one of them selected Cole Hamels

2014 Topps Stadium Club #165 Cole Hamels

Special hat tip to Grant Brisbee of McCovey Chronicles who noted the Hamels snub via twitter (@mccoveychron) last week

After seeing Brisbee's tweet, I Did some quick research and found that over the past 22 seasons the #1 and #2 NL WAR finishers have always received at least 1 MVP vote. 

Here are the NL first and 2nd Place WAR finishers with the MVP pct of the 2nd place finishers.



YEAR
NL WAR 1st
NL WAR 2nd
Vote PCT for #2
MVP Places for 2nd Place WAR
MVP Place for 1st Place WAR
2014
Clayton Kershaw
Cole Hamels 6.9
0
25 players received Votes
1
2013
Carlos Gomez 
Kershaw 8.4
35
7th
9
2012
Posey 
McCutchen 7.2
55
3rd
1
2011
C Lee
Halladay 8.7
12
9th
Lee 15th @ 3%
2010
Halladay
Pujols 7.5
62
2nd
6
2009
Pujols 
Utley 8.2
19
8th
1
2008
Pujols 
Utley 9.0
7
14th
1
2007
Pujols 
D Wright 8.3
41
4th
9
2006
Pujols 
Betlran 8.2
47
4th
2
2005
D Willis
Pujols 8.4 
84
1st
Willis 11th @ 9%
2004
Bonds
Beltre 9.6
69
2nd
1
2003
Bonds 
Pujols 8.6
68
2nd
1
2002
Bonds 
R Johnson 10.7
28
7th
1
2001
Bonds 
Sosa 10.3
62
2nd
1
2000
Helton
R Johnson 8.1
1
17th
5
1999
R Johnson
Hampton 7.8
2
21st
R Johnson 15th @ 5%
1998
K Brown 
Bonds 8.1
15
8th
Brown16th @ 2%
1997
L Walker
Biggio 9.4
40
4th
1
1996
Bonds
Gilkey 8.1
3
14th
5
1995
Maddux
Bonds 7.5
5
12th
3
1994
Maddux 
Bagwell 8.2
100
1st
5
1993
Rijo 10.2 WAR
Bonds 9.9
95
1st
Rijo 21st w/ 1^%


There it is - Over the last 22 years we have 44 players that have fininished 1 or 2 in NL WAR. Every one of them got an MVP vote except Cole Hamels.

As expected pitchers finishing 1 or 2 are pretty likely to get dismissed. Nine times the WAR leader has been a pitcher Only Kershaw has gone home with the MVP award.

In 1993 Jose Rijo's finished clear back at #21 despite a 10.2 WAR. He was also not among the 3 NL players to receive first place Cy Young votes. Although his pitching WAR was only 9.3, but it was still best among NL pitchers.

Cole Hamels 2015
At this point in the Hot Stove - Late November - we are not sure that Cole Hamels will be in a Phillies uniform in 2015. Regardless we will project him and adjust as necessary in the future.

As a Karma for the MVP Snub we are projecting big things for Cole Hamels - and In honor of Jose Rijo's near snub in 1993 we are projecting Hamels for a whopping +9.3 WAR for 2015.

Ok it is a bit high, and it is based on nothing but a number of an unrelated pitcher from over 20 years ago, but it is my projection. If you don't like it, make your own calculation. 

2014 Topps Stadium Club
There are a lot of great pix in 2014 Stadium club, I am not sure that the shot of Cole Hamels is one of them, however I am sure of one thing....
2008 Topps Stadium Club #69 Cole Hamels

The 2014 TSC card is a lot better than the 2008 card featured here. There is nothing wrong with this shot except that Hamels is the 2nd most important person on a 2 person card.

Sources and Links
2015+ Phillies WAR Projections
Grant Brisbee  (@mccoveychron)
baseball-ref

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