TASR: 2009 Topps #390 Joey Votto - Game Dating

This is our second column in our series dedicated to Joey Votto's 2009 All-Star Rookie Cup Card. 

Today we are going to try and Game Date the Photo. For those of you that weren't with us last week you can go here to see the original posting - for purposes of this column here is a reminder of the card:

2009 Topps #390 Joey Votto

Game Dated Card*

I am opening with minor asterisk here by noting I am not positive on this one. The evidence we find in baseball-ref while not conclusive does appear to point to a specific at-bat. That likely plate appearance was in the fourth inning of a Reds game at Shea Stadium on May 10th 2008. 

How did we arrive here?

1) This appears to be Shea Stadium in it's closing season of 2008. Within Getty Images we were unable to find the picture on the card, However there was this series of photos of Votto that were all taken on May 10th    

This doesn't confirm the date but it is similar enough to verify we are dealing with the Mets and Shea Stadium.

2) This is a big one - According to baseball_reference Joey Votto played only 2 games at Shea Stadium. Those two games were on the proposed May 10th date and the following day May 11.

Now that we are down to 2 games we can look at the details. 

3) Now we switch over to retrosheet because their play by play is a tad more descriptive and we find this within the May 10th game:

 

YAHTZEE!!!

It is the only time that "Bunt" is mentioned with Votto in the play by play for either game within retrosheet or baseball_reference. 

That's good enough for me. We got ourselves down to two games and within one those two games we found documentation of a bunt attempt. 

Exceptions: Of course this is not conclusive, Votto could have attempted a bunt in any of his other plate appearances and fouled off the pitch and that would not be recorded by retrosheet or baseball_ref. Regardless we definitely got the card of a potential Hall of Famer down to a single series in May of 2008. 

Bonus Evidence

4) This is all just supplementary evidence that doesn't prove anything but does support the case we made in points 1-3 above

We return to Getty Images and find a photo from the other game (May 11th)

This photo looks a lot different because it's from the opposite camera well. There is another detail of interest. Look at the bat - it's a natural wood stain. Now return to the top and look at Votto's bat when he's bunting. It's black - the 3 photos from May 10 all black bat. 

There is one other photo from May 10 which is from the first base angle and it also shows black bat. 

Now this doesn't mean that Votto didn't have an AB with a black bat May 11 but so far every AB on May 10 is black bat and the only AB on May 11th is natural

Looking Back

In last weeks column we discussed that Joey Votto had 8700 PAs without a sacrifice, well he wasn't sacrificing here either. Votto was leading off the inning so this was not a sacrifice attempt. It was likely a good strategic move, Votto a Left Handed Hitter was leading off facing the tough Southpaw Johan Santana on the mound. Right Handed Slugger Edwin Encarnacion was on deck and in fact did hit a Home Run off Santana. 

Sources and Links

Joey Votto Index

2009 TASR Index

Game Dated Cards Index

baseball_reference

retrosheet

Getty Images

Rich Pilling Photography

TASR: 2009 Topps #390 Joey Votto

Cincinnati Reds Legend and Fan Favorite Joey Votto announced his retirement recently. Amongst active position players he was the longest tenured member of the Topps All-Star Rookie Cup.  That baton has now been passed on to Giancarlo Stanton and Andrew McCutchen who were both named as outfielders to the TASR team in 2011. Justin Verlander (Class of 2007) remains the elder statesman among all active players. 

2009 Topps #390 Joey Votto

This is not Joey Votto's Rookie card, he was in the 2008 Topps base set, it is his 2nd Topps flagship card. Couple of quick Notes on the card: 

-The memorial patch that we can get a glimpse of is for Reds one time young phenom and announcer Joe Nuxhall.

-Joey Votto is not sacrificing here, well at least not successfully. In 8746 career Plate Appearances Joey Votto did not have one Sacrifice Hit. That is the fifth highest number of PAs for a Zero SH player. Carlos Santana has a good chance of passing Votto by the end of the season. 

2008 Season and ROY

Joey Votto had his first full season in 2008 and it was a very productive one (.297/24/84 3.3 WAR) which was good enough to earn him the Rookie Cup at first base. The nearest competitor was Chris Davis (.285/17/55 1.1 WAR)   

In fact Votto's year was so good he was also in the running for NL Rookie of the Year. He finished 2nd in the voting to Cubs Catcher Geovany Soto (.285/23/86 3.3 WAR). Those numbers are very similar but Soto received 31 of 32 first place votes. He had the edge on Votto for two reasons 1) Playing catcher rather than first base 2) Soto's Cubs won the NL Central finishing 23.5 games in front of the Reds. 

Overall the 2009 Rookie Cup Team ended up being a solid class that included Votto's longtime teammate Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria, Denard Span and Alexei Ramirez. Clearly the best players were now fellow 2023 retiree Longoria and Votto.  Both have very similar offensive numbers with Votto edging out Longoria due to many more walks (1365 vs 730). Of course Longoria played the more challenging position of 3rd Base and has a more significant postseason resume. 

Among the first 52 Rookie Cup Classes 2009 ranks in the top third of the years for which we have tabulated stats (1960-2011). The most prominent key number for the 2009 team is Home Runs, the squads 1475 dingers rank 13th - Votto, Longoria and Bruce combined for 1014.  

Rookie Cup Team: Longest Tenured Actives

With Joey Votto's exit a struggling Anthony Rizzo has become the Rookie Cup's longest tenured first baseman*.  Here is a complete list of longest tenured TASR winners

C	Travis d'Arnaud	2015
1B	Anthony Rizzo	2013
2B	Ian Happ	2018
3B	Nolan Arenado	2014
SS	Jose Iglesias	2014
OF	Jayson Heyward*	2011
OF	Andrew McCutchen	2010
OF	Giancarlo Stanton	2011
LHP	Wade Miley*	2013
RHP	Justin Verlander	2007
RP	Craig Kimbrel	2012
DH	Miguel Sano	2016

*I believe both Justin Heyward and Wade Miley have been released and are possibly retired. The Heyward slot would be succeeded by Mike Trout and Bryce Harper (both 2013, Harper was an OF on the team), 2nd in line for LHP is Carlos Rodon  

Also since Bryce Harper was an outfielder on the Rookie Cup Team he remains so for this exercise, otherwise he would be tied with Rizzo for first base honors. 

Extra Innings

Turns out that Joey Votto Rookie Cup card has so much going on that we will need to expand this into multiple postings. Look for some additional info next week. 

Joey Votto Index

2009 Topps #309 Game Dating

Sources and Links

2009 TASR Index

baseball_reference

Getty Images

E - A - G - L - E - S!........................EAGLES!!! !

Loved enjoying the game last night with great friends.

Sports ain't everybody's thing and I get that. Hell, I have lots of other interests: Music, Film, Disc Golf,  Food, Comedy, Trivia, and Theater all quickly come to mind.

But man nights like the Eagles winning the SuperBowl make me feel sorry for folks that just blow off sports entirely.

There is something unique about having watched literally hundreds of games - lots and I mean LOTS of which are meaningless. However the time we all get to spend together before, during, and after those games is far from trivial.

All those games are remembered collectively as good times spent with my Eagles Family. Last Night is the Night that we will remember forever. It was great time and I am glad we got to experience it together.

2009 Topps #91 Jason Peters

 

When I returned to collecting a little over a decade ago I took an interest in just about any type of card, but I quickly realized that I had the most fun when I was focused on Baseball. My football collection is in pretty much a disarray but I was able to dig up a couple of Eagles cards.

 

The Jason Peters above is interesting to me, because he is a 14 year veteran of the NFL and has been with the Eagles for about a decade. Unfortunately for Peters he was injured and did not get to participate in the SuperBowl as a player. However I believe I saw a player bring out his jersey at some point during last nights game. Good stuff to see and it is always good to see the Lineman getting respect out there.

 

Fly Eagles Fly!  

 

Sources and Links

NFL

 

 

2009 Toipps #UH248 Chan Ho Park

Yesterday we covered Chan Ho Park's HoF (lack of) candidacy. Today I just want to add some proof that he spent 15 minutes in the Phillies organization.

2009 Topps Update #UH248 Chan Ho Park
 

Flip

2009 Topps Update #UH248 Chan Ho Park (b-side)

Just posting this to note that it is interesting that Chan Ho Park owned slugger Miguel Tejada. Prior to coming to Philadelphia Park was basically a starter. With the Phillies he was relegated to spot relief.

 Phungo Cards

 2010 Topps #51 Chan Ho Park

One final piece of evidence Chan Ho Park pitched for the Phillies, way back in 2009 I took a picture of him on the mound and somehow that picture made it onto an early Phungo Card

Sources and Links
2010 Phungo Checker
baseball-ref

Sunday Night Baseball: Nick Markakis 2009 Topps Propaganda #PP23 (UER)

The Orioles host the rival New York Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball. As part of both our SNB and 2014 Playoff Contender's series tonight we take a look at long time Orioles outfielder Nick Markakis.

2009 Topps Propaganda  #PP23 Nick Markakis (uer)


Recently @HighHeatStats Twitter feed noted that the top six players in Active Games played with only one club were as follows: 

Derek Jeter 2730
Jimmy Rollins 2090
David Wright 1508
Chase Utley 1460
Nick Markakis 1353
Ryan Howard 1315

There he is Nick Markakis right in the middle of a couple of New Yorkers and a bunch of Phillies. He has made his way onto the list by keeping himself healthy. Since 2006 he has played in 147 or more games every season but one. The one year that Markakis did get injured was 2012 and it cost him his one previous shot at postseason play.  

Outside of an exceptional 2008 season none of Markakis' individual seasons have been outstanding, Markakis has been quite steady. He has put up double digit homers every year and never had an average below .271 - career BA .290.

The AL WAR of 2008
In 2008 Markakis Led all AL players and position players in WAR (7.5) yet he didn't get a single MVP vote. The Orioles were dreck that year (93 losses), but teammate Aubrey Huff got MVP votes (32HR vs 20 for Markakis, 108 vs 87 RBI). Huff's role as a DH limited his WAR to 4.1. Award winner Dustin Pedroia was 2nd to Markakis in AL WAR and AL Position WAR. The offensive WAR category went to A-Rod - Pedroia finished 5th but was tops among players that made it to the playoffs. Note the BoSox were not division winners in 08. They got in on a Wild Card behind the Rays, then lost to the Rays in a 7 game ALCS. 

2009 Topps Propaganda
Propaganda is a 30 card insert set of 2009 Topps Update.  I believe there is one card for each team, the Phillies representative is Ryan Howard.

The card design which evokes the propaganda posters of the 1940 was developed by Chris Speakman,  Speakman continues to do a lot of work with MLB and has a number of Seriagraphs and Posters for each MLB team. His Phillies subjects include Howard, Chase Utley, Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Chooch.

UER
The Uncorrected Error on the above Markakis card is that Orioles establishment year. The O's only date back to 1954 not 1894.  There is a second inception date for the Orioles but that is Pre-O's Pre-Browns Milwaukee Braves who played their inaugural game in 1901. Regardless that ain't 1894 either.

I am not sure where the 1894 date originates other than it was propagated from a similar card, except my hack research failed to uncover a team that joined baseball in 1894.

The error highlights an inconsistency in the propaganda set. Andrew Bailey's Athletics card specifies 1968, the year they moved to Oakland, rather than 1901 the year that the Philadelphia A's were a charter member of the American League. However, the crosstown Giants card of Tim Lincecum does not specify the year the team arrived in San Francisco, 1958. The card specifies 1883 which is the year they joined the NL representing New York as the Gothams - their nickname prior to becoming the Giants. 

Sources & Links
Baseball Cardpedia
Baseball-ref
Playoff Contenders Index
SportsPropaganda

Home Opener: 2009 Topps #103 Kyle Kendrick

We are experiencing some transportation issues at Team Phungo HQ, but that should not keep us from making the jaunt down to the ball park for tomorrows 2014 Phillies Home Opener.

2009 Topps #103 Kyle Kendrick

Every time I hear Kyle Kendrick's name I cringe. They are a number of factors, he originally came up as a low ceiling back of the rotation starter with little fanfare, He is romantically connected to a low level reality starlet whom I find annoying, but mostly because I have heard he has a penchant for boy bands.

As far as your starting pitching draw is concerned going to the Home Opener when your team begins it season on the road is a gamble. This year we get Mr Kendrick.

As I have noted I cringe, but everybody that I discuss the now 29 year old Right-Hander with notes that he has some pretty strong stretches in the last couple of seasons. Kendrick also had a nice 2014 debut going 7 innings vs the Rangers giving up only 1 run on 5 hits and a walk.

2014+
Another thought that may make Phillies fans shudder is that Kendrick's number 1 age comp (according to Baseball-Ref/Bill James sim scores) is Joe Blanton. In 2010 Blanton spent his age 29 season with the Phillies. He 9-6 with a 4.82 ERA (85 ERA+, -0.1 WAR) - Those numbers point to a flat out average MLB season.

The remainder of Kendrick's top 10 comps all pitched 100+ innings at age 29, half exceeded 150 innings with the average at 150 innings. If you take out the one pitcher that got injured Carl Pavano (2005 Yankees) and the pitcher who was a 1930s era swingman (Johnny Marcum) the average among the remaining eight pitchers is 168 innings. The Kendrick 10 pitched to an ERA+ of 92 at age 29 with an average WAR of 1.29. If we remove Pavano and Marcum again and ALSO Adam Eaton's PUTRID 2007 season we get ERA+ 98 with a WAR of 2.0.

Beyond 2014 the best Kyle Kendrick can expect is to be Tood Stottlemeyer who pitched 8 additional season starting at age 29, with 183 starts and 76 wins. Stottlemeyer had a career WAR of 16.5 at 29+. Several of Kendrick's current comps remain active so his average 29+ comp is likely deflated - 4 Years, 31 Wins, 4.0 WAR. The worst that his contemporary comps fared was Eaton who had 318 inning left and pitched to an ERA of 6.40 for the remainder of his career.

Phungo Sez
I am going above the box on this one. Based off of last weeks outing versus the Rangers and Kendrick's solid spring results I am projecting a breakout season. 12-9 for Kyle with a 3.83 ERA, 111 ERA+ and a +3.8 WAR. That right I am giving Kyle Kendrick the same 2014 WAR as Cole Hamels.

I cannot belief how much I just wrote about Kyle Kendrick.

Phillies 2014+ Index
Cody Asche WAR + 1.8
Cole Hamels WAR +3.8
Ryan Howard WAR +1.0
Kyle Kendrick WAR +3.8  

Phils projected W total via WAR thru 4 players 62.4.

Sources
Baseball-ref

Phillies 2014+ Cole Hamels 2009 Topps #299

We are a half decade removed from the spring of 2009. That spring Cole Hamels was 25 years old coming off a World Championship and a World Series MVP award.

2014 Topps #299 Postseason Highlights Cole Hamels

2009 ended up being Cole Hamels worst season....to date. 2014 is full of uncertainty for the now 30 year old Southpaw. He has a mysterious injury the Philllies remain mum about, Scheduled throwing sessions have been scratched, Hamels has described the issue as arm fatique and minor. None of this is comforting to Phils fans as Cole's 2014 Debut keeps getting delayed.

2013 Cole
This makes Hamels new season tough to predict. It may be true that Hamels was a victim of poor run support in 2013, but his overall performance was quite average. Whils his WHIP, H/9, BB/9, K/9, and K/BB numbers each were off only slightly, the cumulative effect of the averages was that his ERA+ dropped to 106 well below his career average of 123. This is in a season when the rest of the leagues pitchers were putting up unprecedent strikeout numbers. It could very well be that Hamels was suffering from his present arm issues last season.

Sim Scores
To gain some insight into what Cole Hamels season may 2014 season may look like we took a look at his age 29/30 similarity score matches in Baseball-ref. Of Hamels top 10 matches 2 are active in his class (Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke) and Juan Pizarro was a reliever. This leaves us with seven comparables:  



Yellow = Age 30 seasons of the 7 pitchers that comp with Hamels
light grey line 1 = average of all 7 pitchers
light grey line 2 = average of the bottom 5 pitchers on the list
Grey = Team Phungo 2014 Projection

Four of the 7 pitchers pitched full seasons. Jake Peavy had an unprecedented back/torso injury midway through his age 29 season. During the winter prior to 1990 Kevin Appier had an off the field injury. Sid Fernandez missed about half a season due to a series of  knee injuries.  I created two lines of averages, the first line is all 7, the second line excludes Peavy and Appier due to the timing/type of injuries. I kept Fernandez because his injury was basically in season and not season ending. 

Those odds would give Hamels a 4 of 7 chance of getting 200 innings (57%) for the full set. 4 in 5 (80%) if you exclude Peavy and Appier.

Those are fairly frightening numbers for the Phillies who likely need many things to go their way to be competitive. Hamels looks to be gone for at least part of April which jeopardizes any chance he has of getting 200 innings. 

Beyond that 2013 for Hamels was an average major league season. Among the comps Bob Welch and Fernandez's abbreviated season were the two that could be considered significantly above average. The rest were slightly above average and sadly I think that is the best we can hope for from Mr Hamels.    

2014
I see Hamels 2014 Numbers roughly matching his 2013 averages, which slightly lest output due to missing a month of the season - 8-10, 3.65 ERA with 185 innings. His 2013 WAR was 4.6 - for 2014 I am penciling Hamels in for 3.8 WAR.
 
2009 Topps Postseason Hightlights
 

2014 Topps #299 Postseason Highlights Cole Hamels (b-side)

Minor quibble with the flip side of this 09 PSH card - As the card mentions in the text, the 2009 Series included an unprecedented 2 day rain delay. This meant the Series ran through October 29th, not the 27th.

Phillies 2014+ Index
Cole Hamels
Ryan Howard

Sources
Baseball-ref
New York Times
Rory Costello @ Sabr.org - Sid Fernandez
ESPN Chicago
MLB.com
Larry Stone @ Seattle Times

Happy 5th Anniversary 2008 World Champion Philadelphia Phillies: 2009 Topps #278 Post Season Highlights

Tempus Fugit - 5 years ago This blog was in it's infancy and the Philadelphia were World Champions.  A lot has happened in those five years.  The Phillies aren't nearly the same squad but it is fun for a day to look back at that magical 2008 run.

2009 Topps #278 Post Season Highlights (black parallel)

I like the cards that commemorate the great moments in the game, and this is also a game that I was lucky enough to attend - it is a card that I will always love.  There are several other cards that commemorate the Phillies run including this DayF custom.

More Phungo 2008 World Champions Postings
2008 10 29 - 10th anniversary with some Phungo Pix and a game ticket
2008 10 30 - Our initial celebration posting, the photo is quite blurry, yet I love it.
2008 10 31 - Series Recap
2008 11 03 - Cole Hamels World Series MVP


DayF original 1/1 

PHUNGO CHALLENGE: Topps Jim Leyland 1992 and 2009 - Fungo on Phungo

Took a look at some of Jim Leyland's cards on the Baseball Card Database and noticed something interesting.  

1992 Topps #141 Jim Leyland (pix stolen from baseball card database)


 Above we have a Topps card of Jim Leyland likely hitting a Fungo as the Pirates manager. 

2009 Topps #339 Jim Leyland (again swiped from baseball card database)

And here we have Leyland with the Tigers 17 years later once again hitting a Fungo.

Most manager cards are profile shots, rarely these sort of "action" shots.  Which brings me to the....

Phungo Challenge
Is there another manager that can be found batting on 2 different cards.   Has to be a manager card, a pair of Ryne Sandberg cards of him batting for the Chicago Cubs doesn't count. 

Jim Leyland
I don't think that Leyland is done managing.  I think he and Detroit may have had enough of each other.  I know 68 seems old enough to retire, but some folks don't appear to be built for Retirement and I think Leyland is one of them.