2017 Hall of Fame Canidate: Pat Burrell

Today we take a look at the most prominent Phillies player on the 2017 Hall of Fame Ballot, Pat Burrell.

2009 UD A Piece of History Box Score Memories #BSM-PB Pat Burrell

For close to a decade Pat Burrell was fixture in the Middle of the Phillies batting order. The 2009 UD card featured here honors one of those games. On October 5th 2008 the Phillies defeated the Brewers 6-2 in game 4 of the NLDS. The W clinched the franchise first Postseason series victory in 15 years.

WAR Stories (actually WPA stories)
Pat Burrell was the offense hero of that game going 3-4 with a pair of Homers and 4 RBI. The big blow was a 2 out/2 strike three run homer in the third. The shot gave the Phillies a 4-0 which they never relinquished. Burrell led all players in Win Probability Added for the game with a healthy 0.282 number. The 3 run homer accounted for 23 of those 28 points.

Flip

2009 UD A Piece of History Box Score Memories #BSM-PB Pat Burrell (b-side)

Back of the card has a nice box score with Burrell Boldfaced in the #5 spot in the batting order. Other noteworthies in the box are Jimmy Rollins who Homered to lead off the game and Jayson Werth who hit a dinger immediately after Burrell's 3 run blast.

Upper Dreck
couple of complaints with the UD box score. I would like to see the line score of the game - Hell UD doesn't even mention who the Phillies played. There pitching portion of the box is also ignored. The often overlooked Joe Blanton went 6 innings allowing just 5 hits and a single run (Homer Prince Fielder)

I have one other complaint. That is on the front of the card - The Phillies and Brewers played this game in Milwaukee, wish that UD would have selected a photo Burrell in an away uni. It is one of those things that I am OCD about on baseball cards - especially cards that are "inserts"

Phungo Verdict

Hell Yes Hall of Fame!

Pat Burrell's tenure in Philadelphia concluded with a World Championship. He followed that up by being part of a World Series winner in San Francisco.  Phungo Verdict = HoF


Phungo Pat Burrell Index 

1999 Topps #T44
1999 Topps Stadium Club #151 Pat Burell - 1998 First overall Pick
2001 Topps #144 (rookie cup)
2001 Topps Stadium Club
2002 Topps Heritage #179
2003 Topps Heritage #11
2004 Fleer Authentix #50
2006 Topps Opening Day #117
2006 Fleer Ultra Diamond Producers #DP19 
2007 Topps Heritage #90 
2008 UD Documentary 2008 06 20
2009 Phungo #5
2011 Topps (w/ Giants)

2010 08 17 Game Report (Burrell returns to Philadelphia with Giants)
2015 Alumni Weekend
Pat Burrell's farewell letter to Philadelphia

Sources and Links
2017 HoF Candidates
Game Dated Card Index
Baseball-ref
Check out my Cards 

Phillies WAR Report April 2016 and 2016 Phungo #20 Odubel Herrera

The Phillies had a pretty nice April picking up an unexpected 14 wins largely due to great starting pitching. However, my biggest surprise for the first month of the Season was Odubel Herrera.

2016 Phungo #20 Odubel Herrera 

I had felt Herrera's .297 BA 2015 Season was a bit of an anomaly and that he would have a bit of a drop off during his sophomore season. It is early but it is worth mentioning Herrera has maintained a decent average so far in 2016 - more impressive are his 23 WALKS! This from a man how walked 28 times in 537 PAs a year ago.

Inducing walks is something a player can work on, but I would never have expected it out of Herrera so early in his career. I hope that he continues to walk and/or gets more strikes and knocks them all over the park. His 4 XBHs in his 80 April ABs this year puts Odubel on pace for close to 25 Long Hits for the season which would be down 39% from his total of 41 in 2016.  There are some sample size issues there, but lets hope that Herrera doesn't lose to much of his power while watching his Bases on Ball number shoot up.

Regardless according to several metrics he is better off walking. His 138 OPS+ number is a step up from the respectable 108 he posted in 2015 and his 0.9 oWAR is a solid month for a player who posted a full season oWAR of +2.7 a year ago. 

For Future reference I captured the Phillies WAR numbers for April 2016

Pitchers	WAR ▾	Batters	WAR ▾
Vincent Velasquez	0.9	Odubel Herrera*	1.0
Hector Neris	0.8	Carlos Ruiz	0.7
Aaron Nola	0.7	David Lough*	0.2
Jeanmar Gomez	0.7	Maikel Franco	0.2
Jerad Eickhoff	0.4	Andres Blanco#	0.2
Andrew Bailey	0.3	Jerad Eickhoff	0.2
Jeremy Hellickson	0.3	Cesar Hernandez#	0.1
Charlie Morton (15-day dl)	0.3	Jeremy Hellickson	0.1
Elvis Araujo*	0.2	Jeanmar Gomez	0.0
Dalier Hinojosa (15-day dl)	0.2	David Hernandez	0.0
David Hernandez	0.1	Dalier Hinojosa (15-day dl)	0.0
Colton Murray	0.0	Hector Neris	0.0
Luis Garcia (40-man)	0.0	Elvis Araujo*	0.0
Adam Morgan*	0.0	Andrew Bailey	0.0
Brett Oberholtzer*	-0.3	Luis Garcia (40-man)	0.0
Daniel Stumpf (40-man)*	-0.3	Colton Murray	0.0
James Russell*	-0.6	James Russell*	0.0
		Daniel Stumpf (40-man)*	0.0
		Adam Morgan*	0.0
		Cameron Rupp	0.0
		Brett Oberholtzer*	0.0
		Charlie Morton (15-day dl)	-0.1
		Vincent Velasquez#	-0.1
		Freddy Galvis#	-0.1
		Aaron Nola	-0.2
		Emmanuel Burriss#	-0.3
		Tyler Goeddel	-0.3
		Ryan Howard*	-0.4
		Peter Bourjos	-0.5
		Darin Ruf	-0.5
		Cedric Hunter*	-0.8

Table Includes games through 2016 0430

2016 Phungo Cards
I never get around to posting as man Phungo cards as I want. I had brief thoughts of putting Herrera on the #1 card, but in the end it was rightfully given to Maikel Franco. Odubel gets the Hero #20.

The photo is a bit of an oddity, I think this is what is referred to as a 3/4 rear angle or something similar. Regardless I try and get my shots from somewhere up front or at worst in profile. It is real rare for me to select a photo from behind a player. This one past the interesting test because I believe you can feel the pitch coming in and we get to see Odubel Herrera's distinctive leg kick.

The picture was taken during a 5-2 loss to the Braves. Herrera went 1-4 in the game with a single. Perhaps pre-saging his 2016 BB surge he led all Phillies in pitches seen with 17. For more details and pix from that game click here.

Sources and Links 
2016 Phungo Checker
WAR stories

Baseball-ref

WAR Stories: Phillies 2016

Last year I was way optimistic on my WAR Projections. This year I am scaling back the project. Instead of dedicating postings to the Phillies WAR projections, I am just going to tack a single sentence/paragraph onto existing posts and see hot that goes.

This is an Index to the Phillies 2016 WAR postings. xxxx Prior to the player name means that I haven't thought about the WAR for that player yet.

2016 Topps #237 Carlos Ruiz

We will start of the one sentence previews right here with Mr Carlos Ruiz - Projected WAR +0.5

xxxx = Jeremy Hellickson
xxxx = Aaron Nola
xxxx = Charlie Morton
xxxx = Jerad Eickhoff
xxxx = Vincent Velasquez
xxxx = David Hernandez
xxxx = Jenmar Gomez
xxxx = Luis Garcia

xxxx = Cameron Rupp
+0.5  = Carlos Ruiz

xxxx = Ryan Howard
xxxx = Cesar Hernandez
xxxx = Maikel Franco
xxxx = Freddy Galvis
xxxx = Darin Ruf
xxxx = Andres Blanco

+2.6 = Odubel Herrera
xxxx = Peter Bourjos
xxxx = Aaron Altherr
xxxx = Cody Asche
xxxx = Darnell Sweeney

+50.0 = Replacement Team

+53.1 = 2016 Phillies

aWARds Series Index

This is an Index to our various postings dedicated to WAR and MLB aWARds.

1974 Topps Mike Schmidt

1966 MVP AL - Frank Robinson/Earl Wilson Snub
1974 MVP NL - Steve Garvey or Mike Schmidt
1974 ROY NL - Greg Gross vs Bake McBride
    1974 ROY NL - Bake McBride vs Greg Gross
1980 MVP AL - Thurman Munson vs George Brett
1987 MVP AL - Alan Trammell vs George Bell
2008 MVP AL - Nick Markakis receives ZERO MVP votes
2014 CYA NL - Cole Hamels Snubbed

WAR Stories 2015 Projections: Darin Ruf

Today our 2015 WAR Projections turn to Darin Ruf

2013 Topps Heritage Chrome #HC98 Darin Ruf/Tyler Cloyd (refractor/purple)

Darin Ruf is a First Baseman, trouble is the Phils are already paying somebody $25MM dollars to play that position. He can also play outfield, trouble there is the Phillies are trying to figure out if any of their younger players can play those positions.

That leaves Ruf as a man without a position. He has shown some signs that he can hit if given the opportunity. And in 2015 Ryne Sandberg has moved forward and started Ruf as part of a platoon at first base. I think by the end of May if Ryan Howard doesn't show he can return to some sort of form that Darin Ruf may see a larger role at first.

2013 Heritage
This is a purple refractor which likely originated as a bonus in a Toys R Us Rack. I picked it up in a trade package from Cards on Cards. Once again we must talk about position, not sure why Topps went with the general position of infield for Ruf. He has always been either a first baseman or corner outfielder outside of a couple of games at 3B, but not enough to declare IF for his position.

2015+
Darin Ruf is moving into his prime hitting years, position-wise to this point he has always been moving around. I See him sticking as 400 PA first base/OF player this year but not contributing much more than a replacement level play +0.5

Sources and Links
2015 Phillies WAR projections
Baseball-ref

WAR stories 2015 Phillies Projections: Chad Billingsley

Chad Billingsley is scheduled for his first start with the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday. Don't have any Phils card for him yet so we will go with a RC.

2006 UD Fleer  #70 Chad Billingsley

I hope Chad is auditioning for playoff teams and he puts enough good starts together that the Phillies can trade him at the deadline for a prospect that can contribute in the 2017 timefram

Not sure what that will look like WAR-wise. If he pitches as well as Aaron Harang's first couple of starts that would be great. I will go with +1.6 WAR which is what Billingsley posted in 25 starts during the 2012 season.  

2006 UD Fleer

I like the minimal yet colorful front of the cards, The Baseball Cap is a nice touch.

2006 UD Fleer  #70 Chad Billingsley (b-side)

However the flip shows off one of UDs biggest weaknesses. They regularly put no effort into the back of the cards.


Sources and Links
2015+ Phillies WAR Projections
baseball-ref

And with the 10th pick the PHILLIES Select......

Tyler Green

1992 Topps #764 Major League Draft Pick Tyler Green

At least that is who they selected back in1991 the last time they had the 10th overall pick. The Phillies will pick in the same spot in the upcoming 2015 draft and with that in mind today we are going to take a look at the history of the MLB #10 pick.

Despite the fact that Tyler Green was an All-Star for the Phillies in 1995 the pick has to be considered a disappointment.

At the all-star break in 1995 Green was 8-4 with a 2.81 ERA, unfortunately he would not win another game that season. He finished at 8-9 with a 5.31 ERA. Three years later Green pitched his final game at the age of 28.

His final career was a -0.5 (32nd among draftees that made the majors) and below replacement level.

WAR stories
Of the 47 players drafted #10 between 1965 and 2011 thirty-nine made the majors (83%), Tyler Green is among that 83%, however he is not one of the 25 players (53%) who had a positive career WAR. 16 of the players have had Career WAR of 8 or above (34%). Eleven Players hit 20 or above (23%).

The Best career WAR among #10 Picks belongs to Mark McGwire (62.0), There is no #10 pick in the Hall of Fame however arguments could be made for  Robin Ventura (55.9) and Ted Simmons (50.1) who are both current Hall of Stats members.

If we were too look at Tyler Green positionally in the draft, There were 14 Pitchers taken #10,  only 4 broke the +8.0 WAR barrier (28%), but the Nationals Drew Storen is lurking at +5.3

Notable active players from the #10 club include Giants Pitchers Tim Lincecum (22.5 WAR) and Madison Bumgarner (17.6). The most significant position players among actives are Cameron Maybin and Jason Castro.

1991 Draft
Among first rounders the Big name that the Phils missed out on by Drafting Tyler Green was Manny Ramirez (Drafted 13th). There were six pitchers in the 1991 draft that all achieved 20+ WAR in their careers, All were picked after Green, Brad Radke (45.5 WAR drafted by the Mariners, pick 206) topped that group which included former Phillie Jon Lieber (24.3, Mariners, 241)

It also should be noted that this is the draft that the Yankees picked Brien Taylor #1 overall. Taylor never played in a major league game. 

Phillies 2015
So what does this all mean?

Well first off the Phillies need to do better with their 2015 pick than Tyler Green. He may have been an All-Star, but his contributions beyond that were negligible.

Baseball-Ref defines +2.0 WAR as a starter and +5.0 as an all-star.

The +8.0 at #10 is an interesting barometer. 1/3 of the players break that plane and it also equates to four seasons as a starter. That isn't All-Star caliber but the player could be a useful piece on a playoff team. The 20 WAR mark could be looked at as a dozen years of starting or a couple of all-star seasons flanked by 3 or 4 years of steady work. The Phillies have roughly a 1 in 4 chance of finding that player.
 
Draft Mania
We are in the middles of the NFL draft mania, an annual event that generates significant Off-Season buzz for the league. The MLB draft doesn't do as well for a variety of reasons, it is in-season, The Collegiate exposure of draftees is minimal at best, Picks are not tradeable, and the players are too far away from the majors.  MLB also does little to promote the event. Why not have at a public venue and invite fans to the festivities with Baseball Alums and autograph opportunities. Seems like a promotional no-brainer.

Sources and Links
baseball-ref
Hall of Stats

WAR Stories: Phillies 2015+ Jerome Williams

The Phillies picked up Jerome Williams in early August of 2014 and he well. Over the course of nine starts with the club the Right Hander went 4-2 with a 2.83 ERA. 

2015 Topps #236 Jerome Williams

During his brief stint with the Phillies Williams peripheral numbers were better than career averages, in most categories including  WHIP, H/9, K/9, BB/9 K/BB, ERA+ and FIP.

Maybe Jerome WIlliams has found something, however I would think his 9 start bump with the 2014 Phillies is an anomaly. His 132 ERA+ with the Phils far exceeds any number he has ever put up. Outside of his rookie campaign in 2003 (128 ERA+) Williams has never done better than 104 ERA+.

It is also worth noting that Williams is now 33 years old and last year was not good enough to stick with not one but two teams that lost more games then the Phillies (Astros and Rangers).

Additionally Williams has struggled in two spring starts.

The Verdict
I am projecting a regression to mean for Jerome Williams. Last year he posted 1.5 WAR for the Phillies but negative numbers for each of his Texas based teams. At his age he is a replacement palyer at best. 0 WAR. 

2014 Topps Card
I like this card with a nice photo which prominently features Jerome Williams signature pink glove.  Williams wears the distinct glove to honor the memory of his mother who died of Breast Cancer.

Sources and Links
Phillies 2015 WAR Projections
Baseball-Ref
ESPN LA

WAR Stories: Phillies 2015+ Carlos Ruiz

Pitchers and Catchers report to Clearwater today which gives us the opportunity to take a look at Carlos Ruiz in our WAR projections segment.

2013 Gypsy Queen #CP-CR Carlos Ruiz

Everybody remembers that Chooch was part of the 2008 World Series team but he isn't held in the same esteem as Rollins or Utley nor he held to the standards of a Ryan Howard or Cole Hamels.

Ruiz is universally respected for his handling of pitchers and has been fortunate enough to catch some pretty good ones - in addition to Hamels there are Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and lets not forget Pedro.

He has survived a violation of the leagues substance abuse policy, and had a pretty solid 2013.

The 2012 All-Star recently turned 36 and any offensive production are probably a bonus from a catcher.

a look at Carlos Ruiz's sim scores echoes this sentiment. The number of his top 10 that had 1.0 Career WAR remaining at age 36+ (two) matches the number of players that never caught another game. The most encouraging comp is Greg Zaun who is also the most recent (2010). During his age 36 season (2007) Zaun posted a 2.3 WAR over 110 games. He batted .242 with 10 Homers. Like Ruiz, Zaun boosted a mediocre Batting Average with a few walks and that .242 BA was part of a bit more impressive .341 OBP.

After that Zaun stuck around for 3 more campaigns never playing more than 100 games and never achieving a WAR above 1.0 again.

Phungo Verdict
I pick Chooch to match Zaun's 2007 campaign +2.3 WAR. For a summary of our 2015 Phillies projections click here.

2013 Gypsy Queen CP- Collisions at the Plate
The GQ Collision at the Plate insert consists of 10 cards. There are Seven contemporary catchers and 3 Hall of Famers: Bench, Fisk and Gary Carter.

The Carlos Ruiz card is from a game played on May 25, 2012.  The baserunner on the play was fellow catcher Yadier Molina who was out. The play happened in the bottom of the 8th inning with the scored tied 3-3.

A video of the play can be found here. It is the 2nd of the four clips. The moment of the pix on the card can be found at the :40 second mark.



Molina was attempting to score on a Matt Adams double - a run would have allowed the Cardinals to turn the game over to closer Jason Motte. The tie forced Motte into pitching 2 innings - in the 2nd of those innings Motte yielded a 2 run homer to Hunter Pence.

Molina had a strange day - he was 2-5 with an RBI however he was thrown out twice on the bases and also grounded out to end the game. 


Sources and Links
WAR Stories Phillies 2015+ Index
Baseball-ref
Cardboard Connection
MLB

WAR Stories Phillies 2015+ Ben Revere

Today we return to our 2015 Phillies WAR projections 

2013 Topps Chrome Refractor #90 Ben Revere

Ben Revere is good at one thing hitting singles. Even his plus speed doesn't seem to translate game changing stolen bases or stellar defense.


Revere's odd statistical career makes him hard to project. An example is the conundrum of his 2014 season, he led the NL in hits (184) but his .325 OBP ranked 40th among the NLs 65 qualified batters. He did have the best Offensive WAR year of his career +2.4 but his dWAR was -2.2,

They aren't really any contemporary comps for Revere. I looked back at some old Baseball America Prospect Handbooks which suggested a ceiling of Brett Gardner. At this point I would be happy with an Austin Jackson. A sobering thought is that Willy Taveras is closer than those two outfielders. Revere is entering his age 27 season - Taveras has been wallowing away in the minors since finishing his age 28 season in 2010. With Ben Revere having no peripheral skill beyond the one base hit, I seriously wonder if he will be in the majors beyond 2016.

2015 Phungo Verdict
Ben Revere is a replacement player 2015 projected WAR = 0. For our running track of the Phillies 2015 WAR projections click here


Refractor
I don't get as excited about refractors as other folks, but I was pretty happy to find this card in a dime box last September


Sources and Links
WAR Stories 2015+ Phillies
Baseball-ref