2017 Hall of Fame Candidate: Vladimir Guerrero

Getting to the 2017 HoF Candidates a little late this year. There are at least a half dozen players I would like to profile including a couple of prominent players who spent time with the Phillies.

We open this series with a longtime member of the Phillies division rival Montreal Expos, Vladimir Guerrero.

1998 Topps #5 Vladimir Guerrero 

Vlad deserves HOF nod just for this card alone. One of my gripes about recent Topps is the plethora of action shots. While 1998T might not have the best design, at least there is some interesting variations in the photography.

1998 Topps #5 Vladimir Guerrero (b-side)

The text on the back discusses a play early in Vlad Guerrero's career where he scored from second on a sacrifice fly. The run gave the Expos a 2-1 lead versus the Braves and future Hall of Famer Greg Maddux. Unfortunately for Montreal Ugueth Urbina would later give up a 2 Run Homer to Keith Lockhart which would give Atlanta a 3-2 victory. 

Regardless the rare 2 base sacrifice score gave us a glimpse into the talent of the young Vlad Guerrero. The fly out came off the bat of Doug Strange who hit the ball to Right Fielder Michael Tucker.

The play was featured on a 1998 Stadium Club Card

 1998 Stadium Club #3 Vladimir Guerrero (image swiped from Play at the Plate)

A nice analysis of this card was done by the fine crew at Play at the Plate (who else).  I may need to add this card to the Phungo Collection just as a companion for the 1998 Base card.

Phungo Verditct

HOF


The scoring from 2nd on a Fly Out is the kind of hustle that makes one want to cast a Yes HoF vote.

Sources and Links
Vladimir Guerrero HOF Index
Play at the Plate
2017 HoF Candidates Index
Phungo Game Dated Index
Baseball-ref
Check Out My Cards 

1998 First Overall Pick Pat Burrell

Last week the Broncos Superbowl Winning QB Peyton Manning officially announced his retirement.

We are taking this moment to take a look at a Phillies outfielder that has something in common with Mr Manning.

Pat Burrell

1999 Topps Stadium Club #151 Pat Burell

Within a few months of each other Peyton Manning and Pat Burrell were both draft first overall in their respective sports.

Burrell is one of twelve Draft Pick Cards that run from #149-#160 in the set. The Dozen cards are all RCs, none of which is more significant that Burrell. The subset does include another Phillies Draftee, Eric Valent.  

SABR
I have been a Member of SABR (Society for American Baseball Research) since 2013 when the National convention was hosted in Philadelphia. This past weekend I gave my first presentation in front of the local SABR affiliate the Connie Mack Chapter. The subject was the success rate of #1 Overall picks in the MLB Draft.

The Phillies are drafting #1 for the first time since the Burrell pick in 1998. I was interested in finding out what the success rate of #1 Picks have been across the history of the draft. I found close to 3/4 of all #1s achieve at least one +2.0 WAR season. A more substantial single season +5.0 WAR season was achieved by a much more modest 1/3 of the candidates. Number Ones reached the playoffs at a rate of 65% of which just short of half (31%) reached the World Series.

In terms of these numbers I judged Burrell a success. His peak WAR was +4.5 which is substantially more that the +2.0 WAR of a pedestrian starter, but not quite an All-Star level of +5.0. However, more importantly to me as a Phillies fan he was among the 31% that reached the World Series and also the 23% that took home a ring.

The powerpoint slides from presentation are below, They are tough to follow without the commentary, but it gives you an idea what I was attempting to learn about the #1 pick. 




Sources and Links
WAR and the Draft Index
SABR
Baseball-ref
Baseball America
New York Times