Phillies Prospect Matt Imhof Injured

Yesterday we got the news that Phillies Pitching Prospect Matt Imhof suffered an eye injury due to a freak accident during a post game workout.

2014 Bowman #DP45 Matt Imhof


Imhof was the Phillies 2nd pick (#47 overall) in their 2014 draft which has already yielded Aaron Nola. The 22 year old lefty is currently in his 3rd season as a pro and second at single-A Clearwater.


I get freaked out putting in a contact lens, I can't imagine what it is like to suffer a major eye injury. Hopefully things work out well for Imhof and we get to hear positive things about his health in the future.


Flip

2014 Bowman #DP45 Matt Imhof (b-side)


Interesting graph on the back of these Bowman cards. Imhof's most recent numbers are displayed graphically to show how is collegiate numbers compared with the National Average. The Yellow bars correspond to the averages while the green and red are Imhof's numbers - Green is where he was above average (ERA, WHIP, K/9), Red shows his struggles (BB/9). The data is not sourced and doesn't specify the sample for the National Average, I suspect it is for all D1 pitchers.


The numbers proven to be a good glimpse into who Imhof has been as a professional, He has been able to get batters out while struggling with his control.


Sources and Links
Matt Gelb - Philly
Baseball-ref

Cole Hamels SABRmetrician?

 2010 UD Pure Heat #PH-4 Cole Hamels 

In a Dallas Moring News article over the weekend Cole Hamels spoke about the use of Analytics with his new club the Texas Rangers:

"The scouting here is much more reliant on analytics than I had," Hamels said. "So much of what I did before was based on experience. Everything is right there on the iPad. I've been able to get stuff from the analytics that allows me to get something about [opponents'] approaches and get a better feel for their strengths and weaknesses."

This is only confirming what Phillies fans have always suspected, the team is lagging behind other organizations in the use of statistical analysis.

The significance here is that as far as I know Cole Hamels is the most prominent player to point out the Phillies lack of emphasis.

Specifically here Hamels points to knowing an opponents Strengths and Weaknesses. This is not anywhere near new. Curt Schilling has mentioned numerous times that his preparation included the keeping of copious notes on opponents and even umpires.

Of course breaking away from traditional approaches is never easy. I also recall the late Cory Lidle was derided by other members of the Phillies pitching staff of the era (2004-2006 Phillies) for over-reliance on the computer.

 2010 UD Pure Heat #PH-4 Cole Hamels (b-side)

Pure Heat
Selected tonight's card because Apparently Cole was Winning with the Phillies using PURE HEAT rather than big time data crunching.

I don't believe All the Answers to building a better baseball teams are in the stats, but I do think that the Phillies could make more and better use of the numbers.

Sources and Links
Dallas Morning News
Baseball-ref

WAR Stories: Phillies 2015+ Chase Utley

The 2014 MLB season is drawing to a close and it is time for us baseball fans to face the fact that the long winter and baseball offseaason is nearly upon us. We here at Team Phungo hope to keep the baseball spirit going with a couple of different features. We still need to finish up our 1964 Phillies retrospective, There are a bunch of 2015 HoF candidates I would like to get to and the 1959 Baseball Thrills Subset coverage remains unfinished.

Along with those unfinished items, I would also like to revisit a series we only got four players into in 2014.  Our look at the current Phillies ball club which we dubbed Phillies 2014+

2014 Bowman Chrome #123 Chase Utley

The goal was to project the Phillies Win total by accumulating the rosters WAR totals. I also figured that in addition to gauging our predictions it would give us a chance to examine and consider todays players.

Today we present the first installment of Phillies 2015+ as we discuss the NL All-Star Second Baseman Chase Utley

2014 Utley -A tale of Two Seasons
Chase Utley was an All-Star in 2014 and he earned that distinction with a solid two months of play at the beginning of the season. Utley was so good in early 2014 that he had reestablished himself as a potential future Hall of Fame candidate.

Thru June 10th Utley had played in 58 games and recorded a .318/.373/.498 slash line. After that he batted a truly poor .239/.317/.348. The resulting final totals were a pedestrian .270/.339/.407. That is a 109 OPS+ kids.
 
2015 Phungo Verdict

To project WAR I am going to take a look at the players similarity scores and attempt to figure out how they apply to their upcoming season.

For Chase Utley's 9 of his age 35 comps our beyond their age 36 seasons. Seven of those 9 actually played at age 36. Based on that number Utley has a 78% chance if returning in 2015.  Unfortunately Utley's two biggest comps Hall of Famer Joe Gordon and the more contemporary Nomar Garciaparra never played beyond their age 35 season. That is a very sobering thought for Utley Fans.

A much happier comp, who I always return to for Chase Utley is Jeff Kent. I like it because 1) Kent played until he was 40 2) He made the postseason 3 different times at age 36+ 3) He appeared on "Survivor" after he retired. As an aside I will note that I would prefer that Chase and Jen Utley appear on "the Amazing Race" over "Survivor" but I would watch either one.

Jeff Kent also posted a 3.9 WAR at age 36 and 3.7 at 37. As a Phillies fan, I would LOVE to see Chase Utley put up numbers that would get him to a 3.7 WAR.

In reality I don't see it.

In his favor Utley is coming off his best season since 2011 - His 3.6 WAR at age 35 was better than all 9 of his comps including Kent.   

The flip side to that is that Kent, Vinnay Catilla, and Bobby Grich are the 3 of the 9 comps to have 2.0+ WAR seasons a age 36. Jeff Kent is the only one of the three to have a mentionable career beyond 36.

I give Chsse Utley a 3.0 WAR in 2015. That puts him right between Castilla and Grich.

2014 Bowman Chrome
This year BowChro is debuting special backs that carry a visual representation of a players performance.  I felt as though this would be a fun card to post as we go all in for the analytics.

Chase Utley's 2014 card shows his hot/cold zones.

 2014 Bowman Chrome #123 Chase Utley

There it is stay off Low and inside to a lefthander. Utley also likes the High and outside pitch and pretty much anything low versus righties.

This is one of three back styles I have seen in 2014 BowChro. The pitchers have location graphs, while some hitters have spray charters.

Phillie 2015+
I will be keeping running track of the 2015 Phillies projected Win total as we analyze the roster. A link to those totals is here.

Sources & Links
WAR Stories Phillies 2015+ Index
Chase Utley Player Collection Index
Baseball-ref
Cardboard Connections

2011 Topps Opening Day #16 Max Scherzer

Tonight the Detroit Tigers Max Scherzer is attempting to become the first member of the 20 win club in 2013.

2011 Topps Opening Day #16 Max Scherzer

The Tigers Max Scherzer has put together an amazing season. Going into tonight he is 19-1. Sometimes Win Loss records are seen as empty numbers. Certainly each season there seems like there is one Phillies pitcher that gets no run support (Hamels in 2013), and one who gets a lot of runs (Kendrick every season). In Scherzer's case This isn't true. He may not of racked up 20 wins with less offense, but he was still destined to get a bunch.

The current WAR leader among AL pitchers is Chris Sale. I am not sure why this is. Scherzer and Sale have comparable innnigs, ERA, ERA+, Strikeout and WHIP numbers.In fact Scherzer wins All of those categories. I checked around on Twitter and Dan M @_LeftField  (blog = Left Field) specified higher competition, ballpark factors, and the Whilte Sox mediocre defense as reasons that Sale's WAR rating is better than Scherzer.

This amounts to a WAR calculation for Sale of 6.2 while Scherzer stands at 5.8.

Regardless Scherzer is pitching for a team likely destined for postseason play, while the White Sox certainly are not.  There is still a month left to play and right now I would have Scherzer as unanimous Cy Young in the AL.

Another interesting aspect of Max Scherszer's season is his emergence as staff ace on a team that also has Justin Verlander. Verlander has been decent, but not nearly as dominant as his previous seasons.  He has struggled a bit his last few starts and overall his season has been average since Mid May.  Through his first 8 starts of the Season Verlander had an ERA of 1.93.  Since then his ERA has been in the middle 4s.  He has maintained a .500 record across both sets of starts and is still among the league leaders in Innings and Strikeouts.  However, both of those numbers are in the middle of the top 10 among his peers. He led the the league in both Ks and IPs in 3 of the last 4 years.

Justin Verlander is still a good pitcher on a good team and it will be interesting to see if he can return to form as October approaches.  If Max Scherzer can be the staff Ace in the playoffs it makes for some nice options for Jim Leyland at the top of the Tigers rotation.

Sources
baseballcardpedia.com
@_Leftfield

High Heat Stats

Sunday Night Baseball and #TWTW 1966 Topps #55 Ken Hawk Harrelson

Tonight Sunday Night Baseball features a battle of struggling squads the Chicago White Sox host the LA Angels.

Rather than look at a player representing one of these squads, we have decided to profile a broadcaster for the White Sox.

1966 Topps #55 Ken Harrelson

I am sure that for many ChiSox fans "Hawk" Harrelson is fun to listen to, for the rest of us who get the Sox via WGN America on cable he is really tough to handle.  I think most local baseball broadcasts show some favoritism to the home squad, and I am fine with that - That is who most of the fans following their broadcast are following so why not? well Harrelson takes it to a whole new level

Recently Ken Harrelson created a buzz by how he handled a discussion of  SABRmetrics on an MLB Network program.  At one point during the clip Harrelson brings up his own SABR stat TWTW "The Will To Win". Almost instantly the hashtag #TWTW was trending. It was the talk of many a baseball nerd site.

On the Field

Harrelson's career lasted 9 seasons with four AL clubs A's, Senators(the pre-Rangers ones), BoSox, and Indians.  His best year was 1968 when he finished 3rd in the MVP voting behind 31 Game winner Denny McClain and his McClain's Tiger teammate Bill Freehan.   Harrelson banged out 35 Homer Runs and led the league with 109 RBIs in 1968.  The season is a true Anomaly for Harrelson who had career numbers in almost every offensive category and hit 35 points above his career average.  His OPS+ in 1968 was 155 no other season in his career exceeded 115. 

Ken Harrelson played on one World Series team, the 1967 Red Sox who lost to the Cardinals in 7 games. Hawk went 1-14 in the series and had a tough game 7 striking out twice.  He batted as the potential tying run in the bottom of the 9th and grounded into a double play. Apparently Harrelson's #TWTW was pretty low that day.

Cardboard 
I really like this card.  many of the 1966 Topps cards are head shots with the remainder posed "action" shots, most of which are batting.  There are a few fielding shots, but I can't think of any that are similar to Harrelson here.  His glove is right in the camera and takes up about a quarter of the shot.  The diagonal team banner works with the shot as well.  Here we have a player who is not one of my favorites married with a design that also isn't one of my favorites yet the two together make for a winning combo - largely due to a good pix.   

FTC
The above 1966 Topps Ken Harrelson card is a common - low number cards in that set can be found in the 3 for dollar bin.  Ken Harrelson's Rookie Card is 1964 #419  - commons from that middle series go for a dollar, since Hawk's card is a Rookie that would likely double that price.  His last card was 1971 Topps #510 (common lesst than a quarter)