Showing posts with label WAR and the Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WAR and the Draft. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Happy 45th Birthday Bobby Higginson - 1991 Phillies Draftee

Why is a marginal player like Bobby Higginson showing up in a Phillies blog.

Well the man has a couple of Philadlephia connections. He was born in the City of Brotherly love and went to school locally at Frankford High and Temple U.

In addition to all that he was selected by the Phillies in the 18th round of the 1991 draft. Unfortunately the Phillies were unable to sign Higginson.

2002 UD Vintage #94 Bobby Higginson

The Phillies planned to move Higginson from the Outfield to second base. Since Higginson was not comfortable with the approach he asked for a signing bonus of $20,000 which was 14k more than the Phillies offered. The draftee wanted the bonus to insure that the Phillies would not give up on him too quickly if his play at second didn't go well initially.

The Phillies never countered the 20K number. A year later Higginson was picked in the 12th round of the Tigers who signed him as an Outfielder for 10 grand, plus an additional 10 thousand college provision.

It turned out to be a good move for the Tigers. Bobby Higginson had an 11 year career spent entirely in Detroit.

War and the Draft - 1991
At the top of this article I dismissed Bobby Higginson as a marginal player, well this is simply not true. He had a career WAR of 23.0. This ranks #1 among all players the Phillies Selected in 1991. 2nd Round pick Kevin Stocker ranks #2 at 5.9. #10 overall pick Tyler Green pitched 70 games for the big club but yielded a negative WAR (-0.5)

Among all outfielder picked in 1991 Higginson ranks #3 Behind Mike Cameron (46.5) and Shawn Green (34.5). Fourth and fifth place on the list are held by Phillies Alums Raul Ibanez (20.1) and Doug Glanville (10.9).

Among all #473 Picks in the history of the Draft Higginson ranks #1 in WAR. Glenn Hubbard (19.1) and Phils Alum Dick Ruthven (18.6) are the only other players drafted at that position to have positive WAR numbers.  Bobby Higginson also achieved the standard for his selection in the 1992 draft - He outpaced Rick Honeycutt (22.3) and five other players that made the majors including Orioles Outfielder David Lough who remains active. 

Higginson's 23.0 career WAR is in the top 100 among Left Fielders, this ranks him in front of Bernard Gilkey, Carlos Gonzalez (Active), Hideki Matsui, 1987 AL MVP George Bell, 1962 Hit, Batting and RBI Champ Tommy Davis, the aforementioned Raul Ibanez, and this years Phillies Wall of Fame inductee Pat Burrell.


 1971 Topps #94 Don Hahn

2002 UD vintage stole their design from 1971 Topps. The Card occupied by Higginson was originally the residensce of Montreal Expos outfielder Don Hahn.

Don Hahn played a few games for the Phillies at the tail end of his career. As far as I know he was never issued a Phil, but apparently he did make it into the teams photocard set.

2002 UD Vintage #94 Bobby Higginson (b-side)
1971 Topps #94 Don Hahn (b-side)

UD changed the color of the flip sides just to show they weren't totally pilfering the original Topps design. Interesting that UD moved around the stats, and opted to drop Total Bases - actually giving LESS info on the updated card.

Four Consecutive HR Club
Didn't want to leave this article without mentioning that Bobby Higginson once hit four Home Runs in four consecutive At Bats. It wasn't four in one game or Four Plate Appearances in a row - there were some walks mixed in there, but it was four Homers in four official ABs. It is a fairly rare accomplishment - I think most recently by Carlos Gonzalez (2012). Phillies Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt hit four in a row during an 18-16 victory over the Cubs on April 17 1976.

Sources and Links
the Phillies Room
WAR and the Draft Index
Philadelphia Inquirer - Sam Carchidi
baseball-ref
MLB
History Channel 

Monday, June 8, 2015

50th Anniversary of the June Draft - 36th overall pick Johnny Bench

This week the MLB will be holding their annual amateur draft. 2015 marks the 50th anniversary of the event which was first held in 1965. With the Phillies in Cincinnati to face the Reds it is an apt time for us to discuss the best hitter taken in the initial MLB draft. 

2014 Topps Heritage #65MLB-JB2 Johnny Bench

With their 2nd pick (36th overall) the Cincinnati Reds took Catcher Johnny Bench from Oklahoma City OK.

Using WAR as a barometer Bench (75.0) was the most successful position player taken in the original draft. The runner up to Bench was Graig Nettles (68.0 WAR, Twins - 4th round 74th pick)

There were also two prominent pitchers taken in 1965: Tom Seaver (Dodgers - 10th rd 193rd pk - did not sign, 110.5 WAR) and Nolan Ryan (Mets - 12th rd 295 pk, 81.8 WAR)

Among backstops 2nd place went to 1st round and 7th overall pick Ray Fosse (Indians 12.9 WAR)

The Phillies most successful selection from the 65 draft was Larry Hisle (24.9 WAR - 2nd round, 38th overall). The club failed to sign their first pick Mike Adamson (18th overall) but that is a subject best saved for another posting. 

2014 Heritage - 1965 Draft Insert Set

2014 Topps Heritage #65MLB-JB Johnny Bench

The 2014 Heritage 1st Draft insert set is a bit peculiar. There are only four cards which fall 1 in every 12 packs - the entire set can be built from 2 hobby boxes. The set only has three subjects because Johnny Bench appears on two cards. The other two players are Ryan and Nettles.

2014 Topps Heritage #65MLB-JB Johnny Bench (b-side)


Sources and Links
Johnny Bench HoF Index
baseball-ref
Cardboard Connection

Monday, May 4, 2015

WAR and the Draft Index

Index for our WAR and the Draft postings. This is planned to be an ongoing feature.

1992 Topps #764 Tyler Green

Drafts
1965 Draft (2014 Topps Heritage #65MLB-JB2 Johnny Bench)
1991 Round 18 (2002 UD Vintage #94 Bobby Higginson)
1995 Round 1 (1995 Topps Traded #74T Ben Davis)

Picks
#1 Overall (1998 Topps Stadium Club #151 Pat Burrell)
#1 Overall (1998 TSC Burrell again) 
#10 Overall (1992 Topps Tyler Green)
#15 Overall (2012 Bowman Draft Top Picks #TP-UN Utley/Naquin)

Wednesday, April 29, 2015

And with the 10th pick the PHILLIES Select......

Tyler Green

1992 Topps #764 Major League Draft Pick Tyler Green

At least that is who they selected back in1991 the last time they had the 10th overall pick. The Phillies will pick in the same spot in the upcoming 2015 draft and with that in mind today we are going to take a look at the history of the MLB #10 pick.

Despite the fact that Tyler Green was an All-Star for the Phillies in 1995 the pick has to be considered a disappointment.

At the all-star break in 1995 Green was 8-4 with a 2.81 ERA, unfortunately he would not win another game that season. He finished at 8-9 with a 5.31 ERA. Three years later Green pitched his final game at the age of 28.

His final career was a -0.5 (32nd among draftees that made the majors) and below replacement level.

WAR stories
Of the 47 players drafted #10 between 1965 and 2011 thirty-nine made the majors (83%), Tyler Green is among that 83%, however he is not one of the 25 players (53%) who had a positive career WAR. 16 of the players have had Career WAR of 8 or above (34%). Eleven Players hit 20 or above (23%).

The Best career WAR among #10 Picks belongs to Mark McGwire (62.0), There is no #10 pick in the Hall of Fame however arguments could be made for  Robin Ventura (55.9) and Ted Simmons (50.1) who are both current Hall of Stats members.

If we were too look at Tyler Green positionally in the draft, There were 14 Pitchers taken #10,  only 4 broke the +8.0 WAR barrier (28%), but the Nationals Drew Storen is lurking at +5.3

Notable active players from the #10 club include Giants Pitchers Tim Lincecum (22.5 WAR) and Madison Bumgarner (17.6). The most significant position players among actives are Cameron Maybin and Jason Castro.

1991 Draft
Among first rounders the Big name that the Phils missed out on by Drafting Tyler Green was Manny Ramirez (Drafted 13th). There were six pitchers in the 1991 draft that all achieved 20+ WAR in their careers, All were picked after Green, Brad Radke (45.5 WAR drafted by the Mariners, pick 206) topped that group which included former Phillie Jon Lieber (24.3, Mariners, 241)

It also should be noted that this is the draft that the Yankees picked Brien Taylor #1 overall. Taylor never played in a major league game. 

Phillies 2015
So what does this all mean?

Well first off the Phillies need to do better with their 2015 pick than Tyler Green. He may have been an All-Star, but his contributions beyond that were negligible.

Baseball-Ref defines +2.0 WAR as a starter and +5.0 as an all-star.

The +8.0 at #10 is an interesting barometer. 1/3 of the players break that plane and it also equates to four seasons as a starter. That isn't All-Star caliber but the player could be a useful piece on a playoff team. The 20 WAR mark could be looked at as a dozen years of starting or a couple of all-star seasons flanked by 3 or 4 years of steady work. The Phillies have roughly a 1 in 4 chance of finding that player.
 
Draft Mania
We are in the middles of the NFL draft mania, an annual event that generates significant Off-Season buzz for the league. The MLB draft doesn't do as well for a variety of reasons, it is in-season, The Collegiate exposure of draftees is minimal at best, Picks are not tradeable, and the players are too far away from the majors.  MLB also does little to promote the event. Why not have at a public venue and invite fans to the festivities with Baseball Alums and autograph opportunities. Seems like a promotional no-brainer.

Sources and Links
baseball-ref
Hall of Stats

a thousand words

a thousand words
2008 World Champions