Sunday, August 19, 2012

Phungo 5 with Nachos Grande

This week the Phillies are hosting the Cincinnati Reds who are having very good season.  To find out what is going on with the 2012 edition of the Big Red Machine we are talking with Chris from Nachos Grande

1) Which Red is most likely to Homer off Phillies pitching? 
Of all the Reds, I'd guess Scott Rolen would most like to homer since it's his former team.  That said, I think that Frazier will probably homer since he's been getting a lot of the playing time (and should be one of the front runners for Rookie of the Year).  If I have to choose one player though, it'll be Jay Bruce.  He went through an awful slump but he seems to have righted the ship so to speak and is hitting well over the past few games (including a walk off homer the other night).  Bruce is streaky to a fault, but at least for now it appears he is in one of his good streaks.
2) Which Reds Player from the past has been overlooked by Topps in their Retro-Heritage/Archives/Lineage type products?
I would like to see more cards of George Foster, Ted "Big Klu" Kluszewski, and Edd Roush.  Barry Larkin got a little love from Topps last year but I'd like to see him become the Reds "modern legend" in future Topps sets!

3) Where would you like to go on your next baseball road trip?  
I'd love to see Colorado's stadium and Houston's stadium - both look really nice on TV.  Even more than those, I'd love to visit San Francisco's stadium - something about the bay makes that place seem like no other (at least on TV).  That said, I think I might be taking a trip to Atlanta (and maybe either Kansas City or St. Louis) next summer - the other stadiums are  quite a trip!

4) What do you think would be a good theme for the 2013 A&G 1:2 Pack insert set (some past ones were Whats in a Name, Birth Date, Birth State, Perez Sketches etc) ? 
I think a "top 5 all-time players" from each team could be kind of cool since Topps has been doing a lot more with retired players.  With 30 teams, that'd be a 150 card set which is probably too large (maybe some players could be doubled up in terms of teams - Roger Clemens perhaps or even someone like Eric Davis).  I imagine licensing would be a nightmare though!  If Topps truly wanted to mix it up, I think a set of "Countries of the World" would be pretty sweet.  Again, it'd be a huge set but that's not necessarily a bad thing.

5) Math Question: Based off of Check Lists, Hit Ratios, Serial Numbers etc, How many cases of A&G were produced by Topps?

Ooh boy.  Can I claim it's still the off season for me since school doesn't officially begin until August 27?  No?  Ok then.  It's not easy to figure out exactly how many packs were produced, but if Topps odds are correct we should be able to determine how many hobby packs...  

For instance, there were 100 Topps originals this year and each was numbered 1/1 and seeded 1:45164 packs.  With 100 of them, if they were all inserted into hobby packs (i.e. assuming Topps didn't hold any back for quality control), you'd have 4,516,400 hobby packs.  Each box holds 24 packs, each case holds 12 boxes, therefore each case has 288 packs.  4516400 packs total / 288 packs per case = approximately 15,682 cases.  

Checking the math with another rare 1/1 card - the Ginter Book cards are seeded 1:136,131 packs.  There are 25 book cards total, suggesting there should be  3,403,275 hobby packs (or about 11,817 hobby cases).  

Finally, we can check the numbers with the Currency of the World box loaders.  Those are seeded 1:25 boxes.  There are 30 different countries represented (each numbered out of 50) so there is a total of 1500 different cards.  That suggests there are 37500 hobby boxes or 3,125 hobby cases.

Obviously, those three numbers aren't close!  If I had to guess, I'd say Topps overestimated the rarity of the originals (or the checklist I saw claiming that there was 100 in total) was incorrect.  

We have an open question for the Reds first HR of the series, but as Nachos Grande gets a strong 4 out of 4 on the remaining questions.  I am not bothering to check the math on Q5 - I will just mention each formula looks logical to me - and I have always thought Topps has so many configurations that the odds are all a bunch of hooey anyway.  Chris came up pretty strong on his suggestions for both the Reds and future A&G inserts.  

Replay - 2012 Phungo 5 Postings
Philadelphia Phillies - The Phillies Room
Atlanta Braves - Cardboard Junkie 
Miami Marlins - 30-Year Old Cardboard
Chicago Cubs - Wrigley Wax
Pittsburgh Pirates - Pirates Treasure Room
St Louis Cardinals - Cards on Cards
Los Angeles Dodgers - Night Owl Cards
San Diego Padres - Padrographs
Kansas City Roayls - Autograph Cards
Oakland A's - The Fuji Chronicles
Seattle Mariners - Emeral City Diamond Gems 
Texas Rangers - Play at the Plate

Nachos Grande Replays


a thousand words

a thousand words
2008 World Champions